Chris Murphy

Chris Murphy

B.Ec (Hons, First Class, University Medal) (Sydney) M.Ec (ANU)

Chris Murphy, Visiting Fellow, ANU.

Over his career, Chris has specialised in developing and using economy-wide models for macro policy analysis, macro forecasting and tax policy analysis.

Research Interest

Macro Modelling

Chris developed the Murphy macro-econometric model of the Australian economy, and related Murphy-style models for the Governments of New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi. These models are suitable for macro forecasting and macro policy analysis.

For example, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has used its Murphy-style model, known as MMS, since the turn of the century for both macro forecasting and monetary policy analysis. MMS is regularly updated and enhanced and continues to be the flagship model of the MAS.

In Australia, successive editions of the Murphy model were used in a commercial forecasting service that operated for two decades from 1990, with a mix of government and private clients. An all-new macro model was developed in 2012-2013 and continues to be enhanced. Following enhancements made in 2020 to 2022, it includes detailed modelling of COVID and the fiscal and monetary policy responses to it.

In an October 2021 paper, the model was used to accurately forecast that inflation would exceed 6 per cent in 2022, more than double the inflation rate forecast by others at the same time. In a subsequent journal article, Chris showed that this inflation outbreak occurred partly because fiscal and monetary policy remained highly expansionary for too long in responding to COVID.

From 2019 to 2021, Chris served as modelling adviser to the Australian Treasury while it developed its new macro-econometric model known as EMMA.

Tax Modelling

Chris has also been a leading modeller of tax reform, using tax-focussed computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that he developed. For example, in 2000 he modelled the economic impacts of the introduction of the GST for the ACCC and many government and private clients, and his predictions on the detailed CPI effects proved to be highly accurate. In 2010 he modelled the efficiency of Australia’s key taxes for the Australian Government’s Henry Tax Review, and the results continue to be widely cited. In 2016 he modelled a proposed cut in the company tax rate from 30 to 25 per cent for the Australian Treasury.

State Fiscal Equalisation

Chris has also been a prominent modeller of the Australia system of state fiscal equalisation. In 2012 he began research in this area in work for the South Australian Government. In 2017 he published his own research on the role that fiscal equalisation can play in promoting an efficient national labour market. In 2021 he testified to a Victorian Government parliamentary inquiry into Commonwealth Support for Victoria through GST revenue sharing.

Leadership Roles

In 2016-2017, Chris was commissioned by the Australian Treasury to undertake a department-wide review of its economic modelling capabilities. He engaged widely across the department in reviewing the economic modelling undertaken by the Macroeconomic Group, the Revenue Group and the Fiscal Group. His report assessed the modelling against international benchmarks for modelling by national fiscal authorities.

In much of his work Chris has been supported by modelling teams that he has led in both the government and private sectors. He began his career in economic modelling at the Australian Treasury in 1978. From 1983 he led the economic modelling team at the Office of EPAC that constructed the AMPS model of the Australian economy, and he became the branch manager (SES Level 1). From 1986 he worked at the Australian National University, where he lectured and constructed the Murphy model which was used for both research and a commercial forecasting service. From 1991 to 1994 he was a Director of Access Economics, responsible for modelling and forecasting.

Chris then founded an economic modelling practice. It was known as Econtech from 1994 to 2008, KPMG Econtech from 2008 to 2011, and Independent Economics from 2011 to 2017. Chris was owner-manager at Econtech and Independent Economics and was a Principal while working for KPMG at KPMG Econtech. Over this period he successfuly led modelling teams of up to 13 people. He concurrently served as a member of the Queensland Ministerial Industry Commission from 2013 to 2015.

Current Roles

In 2017 Chris stepped down from directing modelling teams to divide his time between model-based research as a Visiting Fellow at the ANU and closely allied consulting for government agencies. His research at ANU focusses on macroeconomic policy, tax policy and fiscal equalisation. His recent consulting clients include the Monetary Authority of Singapore, The Australian Treasury, the NSW Treasury and the Malaysian Ministry of Finance.

Publications

Books and Monographs

Murphy, C.W. with Enzler, J.J., Ng, H.T., Phang, S.J. and Robinson, E. (2005), “Two Decades of Macromodelling at the MAS”, MAS Staff Paper No. 39, July.

Powell, A.A. and Murphy, C.W. (1997), “Inside a Modern Macroeconomic Model — A Guide to the Murphy Model”, second ed., Springer, Berlin, 455 pp.

Murphy, C.W., Bright, I.A., Brooker, R.J., Geeves, W.D. and Taplin, B.K. (1986), “A Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy for Medium-term Policy Analysis”, Office of the Economic Planning Advisory Council Technical Paper, No. 2, Canberra, 178 pp.

Chapters in Books

Murphy, C.W. (1999), “Payroll Tax: Is it as good as a VAT or as bad as Sales Tax?” in Neil. A. Warren (ed.), State Taxation: Repeal, Reform or Resignation, Australian Tax Research Foundation, 1999, pp 67-105.

Murphy, C.W. (1992), “The Steady State Properties of a Macroeconometric Model” in C. Hargreaves (ed.), Macroeconometric Modelling of the Long Run, Edward Elgar, London, 159-205.

Murphy, C.W. (1991), “Saving Policy Issues Examined with a Macroeconometric Model”, in P.J. Stemp (ed.), Saving and Policy and Growth, Canberra, 103-126.

Murphy, C.W. and Challen, D.W. (1987), “Some Applications of the AMPS Model”, in Jia-Pei Wu and Shou-Yi Zhang (eds), The Role of Economic Modelling in National Economic Management, Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Beijing (in Chinese), 158-172.

Journal Articles

Murphy, C.W. (2023), “Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 Era”, Economic Papers, 42:2, June, 107–152.

Murphy, C.W. (2020), “Decisions in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model”, Economic Record, 96, 252-270.

Murphy, C.W. (2018), “Modelling Australian corporate tax reforms”, Australian Tax Forum, 33:1, 5-49.

Murphy, C.W. (2017), “GST and how to tax Australian banking”, Australian GST Journal, vol. 17, pp 84-105.

Murphy, C.W. and Neill, K. (2013), “The economic impacts of business taxation with special reference to the mining industry”, Tax Policy Journal, vol. 8, pp 29-36.

Yates, J. and Murphy, C.W. (2006), “A cost-benefit analysis of weight management strategies”, Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition, vol. 15, pp 74-79.

Murphy, C.W. (1997), “Optimal Control of a National Economic Model”, Control Engineering Practice, issue 5(4), 535-548.

Smith, J. and Murphy, C.W. (1994), “Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Australian Economy”, The Economic Record, Vol. 70, No. 209, pp 133-148.

Murphy, C.W. (1991, 1992), “The Macroeconomic Outlook”, Australian Economic Review, 2’91, 4’91, 2’92, 4’92.

Murphy, C.W. (1989), “The Budget Strategy & Foreign Debt”, Australian Economic Review, 4’89, 32-51.

Murphy, C.W. (1988a), “An Overview of the Murphy Model”, in Burns, M.E. and Murphy, C.W. (eds), Macroeconomic Modelling in Australia, Australian Economic Papers, Supp.

Murphy, C.W. (1988b), “Rational Expectations in Financial Markets and the Murphy Model”, in Burns, M.E. and Murphy, C.W. (eds), Macroeconomic Modelling in Australia, Australian Economic Papers, Supp.

Murphy, C.W. (1986), “Exchange Rate Policy and the AMPS Model”, Economic Record, Supp., 41-54.

Working Papers

Murphy, C.W. (2022), “Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era”, ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Working Paper, 27/2022.

Murphy, C.W. (2018c), “Australia’s high company tax rate and dividend imputation: a poor recipe for a small open economy”, ANU Tax and Transfer Policy Institute Working Paper, 9/2018.

Murphy, C.W. (2018b) “Optimal fiscal equalisation and its application to Australia: updated”, ANU Working Papers in Trade and Development, 2018/13.

Murphy, C.W. (2018a), “Modelling Australian corporate tax reforms: updated for the recent US corporate tax changes”, ANU Tax and Transfer Policy Institute Working Paper, 2/2018.

Murphy, C.W. (2017a) “Optimal fiscal equalisation and its application to Australia”, ANU Working Papers in Trade and Development, 2017/12.

Murphy, C.W. (2017b), “Modelling Australian corporate tax reforms”, ANU Tax and Transfer Policy Institute Working Paper, 8/2017.

Murphy, C.W. (2016a), “The effects on consumer welfare of a corporate tax cut”, ANU Working Papers in Trade and Development, 2016/10.

Murphy, C.W. (2016b), “Efficiency of the tax system: a marginal excess burden analysis”, ANU Tax and Transfer Policy Institute Working Paper, 4/2016.

Recent Conference and Seminar Papers and Presentations

Murphy, C.W. (2022), “Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era”, Reserve Bank of Australia seminar, 9 May.

Murphy, C.W. (2021), “Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era”, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics seminar paper, 26 October.

Murphy, C.W. (2018a), “A Dynamic mini-CGETAX Model”, presentation to the 2018 Australian Conference of Economists”, 10-13 July, Canberra.

Murphy, C.W. (2018b), “Issues in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model”, presentation to the Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting Workshop, University of Tasmania, 6-7 December.

Murphy, C.W. (2017a), “How to tax a banking oligopoly”, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics seminar paper, 18 July.

Murphy, C.W. (2017b), “Efficiency of the tax system: a marginal excess burden analysis (update)”, presentation to the 2017 Australian Conference of Economists, 20 July.

Murphy, C.W. (2017c), “Modelling company tax reform options”, paper presented to ANU TTPI Crawford School Conference on “What Shall We Do With Company Tax?”, 24-25 July.

Murphy, C.W. (2017d) “Fiscal equalisation of Australian states and territories: policy options and welfare maximisation (update)”, Workshop on Federal Relations and Tax Reform, University of Adelaide, 28-29 August (forthcoming).

Murphy, C.W. (2016a), “Improving the Efficiency of the Australian Tax System: a model-based analysis”, Tax and Transfer Institute seminar presentation, 23 February.

Murphy, C.W. (2016b), “Company tax cut: Budget modelling and post-Budget reflections”, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics seminar paper, 10 May.

Stewart, M., Murphy, C.W. and Ingles, D. (2016), “The economics, incidence and modelling of corporate tax reform”, presentation to Roundtable on Corporate Tax Reform”, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, 15 March.

Murphy, C.W., Song, Tan Di and Poh, Jamie (2015), “A Model of the Singapore Labour Market and Economy”, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics seminar presentation, 20 January.

Murphy, C.W. (2015), “Fiscal equalisation of Australian states and territories: policy options and welfare maximisation”, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics seminar paper, 11 August.

Murphy, C.W. and Prihardini, D. (2013), “Fiscal Policy and Forecasting with a new macro-econometric model”, Reserve Bank of Australia seminar, 17 September.

Selected Published Consultancies

Murphy, C.W. (2022), “Macroeconomic Modelling at MAS”, Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXI, Issue 1, April, Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Murphy, C.W. with Bullen, J., Conigrave, B., Elderfield, A., Karmel, C., Lucas, L., Ruberl, H., Stoney, N. and Yao, H. (2021), “The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia: Modelling Approach”, Treasury Paper 2021-09, September.

Murphy, C.W. (2007, 2011, 2021), “2021 Update of the GST Model of Malaysia”, commissioned by the Ministry of Finance, Malaysia.

Murphy, C.W. (2017), “Economic impacts of selected macroeconomic shocks”, commissioned by the Parliamentary Budget Office.

Murphy, C.W. and MAS staff (2017), “Optimal Control in the Monetary Model of Singapore”, commissioned by the Monetary Authority of Singapore

Murphy, C.W. (2017), “Review of the Economic Modelling Capability of the Treasury”, commissioned by Department of the Treasury.

Murphy, C.W. (2016), “Modelling of the Proposed Cut to the Rate of Company Tax”, commissioned by the Department of the Treasury.

Murphy C.W. and Prihardini D. (2015), “Australia’s Comparative Advantage – Economic Scenarios”, commissioned by the Australian Council of Learned Academies.

Murphy C.W. and Prihardini D. (2014), “Economic impact of selected macroeconomic shocks”, commissioned by the Parliamentary Budget Office.

Murphy, C.W. and MAS staff (2014), “The Monetary Model of Singapore: a Technical Overview”, commissioned by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Murphy C.W. and Neill K. (2012), “Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation: Modelling the welfare and efficiency effects”, commissioned by SA Department of Treasury and Finance.

Murphy C.W., Neill K. and Yates J. (2010), “CGE Analysis of the Current Australian Tax System”, commissioned by the Department of the Treasury.

Murphy C.W. (2000b), “A Guide to Econtech’s Industry Model - Murphy Model 600 Plus (MM600+)”, Econtech mimeo, 8 July.

Murphy C.W. (2000a), “The Implications of a New Tax System (ANTS) - Modelled Using MM600+”, Econtech mimeo, May.

Murphy C.W. (1990), “A Revised Version of the EPA Model of Australia”, commissioned by the Economic Planning Agency of Japan.

Advisory Work

NSW Treasury, “Review of Revenue Forecasting Methodologies and Processes”, 2022-2023.

Australian Treasury, “Macroeconomic modelling adviser for the contruction of the EMMA model”, 2019-2021.

Australian Treasury, “Review of the Economic Modelling Capability of The Treasury”, 2016-17.

Australian Treasury, “Economy-wide modelling for the Tax Review Process”, 2015-2016.

Monetary Authority of Singapore, “Reviewing the Monetary Model of Singapore, the demographic model and the long-term economic model of the Singapore economy”, 1998-present

Singapore Ministry of Finance and Singapore Ministry of Manpower, “A medium-term model of the Singapore Government Budget, Labour Market and the Economy”, 2014-2017.

CV

cmurphy_academic_cv_2024.pdf

Contact Email

chris.murphy@anu.edu.au