Impact of Physical Climate Risks on Antimicrobial Resistance

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change are interrelated complex challenges to humanity. We
investigate the role of physical climate risks in the resistance growth of seven pathogens against twelve
antimicrobials in 30 countries from 2000 to 2020. Our empirical assessment considers both chronic
(gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) and extreme climate risks
(representing extreme precipitation events, droughts, heatwaves, coldwaves, and storms). We observe
heterogeneous responses of different antimicrobial drug-pathogen combinations to physical climate risks.
We observe that the physical climate risks could affect resistance growth more than antimicrobial
consumption growth in some antimicrobial-drug pathogen combinations. We also illustrate stronger effects
of extreme climate risks on resistance growth compared to chronic risks in some antimicrobial-drug
pathogen combinations. We emphasize the importance of a broader exploration of factors affecting AMR
evolution from a one-health approach and enhanced AMR surveillance, among others, to produce effective
policy responses to tame AMR.