An installation-level model of China’s coal sector shows how its decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce overseas coal imports

China aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, and an emissions peak before
2030. This will reduce its consumption of coal for power generation and steel making.
Simultaneously, China aims for improved energy security, primarily with expanded
domestic coal production and transport infrastructure.
Here, we analyze effects of both these pressures on seaborne coal imports, with a
purpose-built model of China's coal production, transport, and consumption system with
installation-level geospatial and technical detail. This represents a 1000-fold increase in
granularity versus earlier models, allowing representation of aspects that have previously
been obscured.
We find that reduced Chinese coal consumption affects seaborne imports much
more strongly than domestic supply. Recent expansions of rail and port capacity, which
reduce costs of getting domestic coal to Southern coastal provinces, will further reduce
demand for seaborne thermal coal and amplify the effect of decarbonisation on coal
imports. Seaborne coking coal imports are also likely to fall, because of expanded supply
of cheap and high quality coking coal from neighbouring Mongolia.